Seeing the Future in Weak Signals

Over 40 years ago, Igor Ansoff (author of the first text devoted entirely to corporate strategy), described the important role that detecting and analysing weak signals plays in effective strategic planning. Weak signals are those ambiguous and controversial bits of information about the competitive environment that are typically hidden among the "noise" of the prevailing sensemaking paradigm and that gradually coalesce to form a pattern of intelligence that alerts sensitive leaders that it may be time to change their game. In discussing how organisations learned (or failed) to adapt to a dynamic environment Ansoff wrote: "The evidence that a major change is needed is hidden among these other voluminous signals; it is not loud, clear and unambiguous, like the voice of doom, and it is not welcome information anyway" (Ansoff 1976: 69). Ansoff predicted that a gap of some years is likely between the time leaders first pick up new, weak signals and the development and implementation of a new strategy. A further gap of some years was predicted before organisational structure would be aligned with the new strategy. These gaps in an organisation's adaptive process can prove competitively fatal. In recent years, the emerging field of futures studies has re-emphasised the importance of detecting and analysing "emerging issues" that are defined by information that is still uncertain, contradictory and on the fringes of an organisation's data gathering and sensemaking radar (Slaughter 1999: 256ff). As the twenty first century unfolds, information flows are even more voluminous and the voices of stakeholder groups seem to be more diverse and more often in conflict than they were when Ansoff first wrote about the phenomenon of weak signals (or emerging issues) analysis. Signals today need to be persistently "loud and clear" before a watertight case for new investment and action can be made to the satisfaction of all interested parties. Consequently, leaders today may be even more reluctant to invest in nurturing the organisational culture, the human skills and the supporting technology necessary to ensure that they and their organisations are sensitive and responsive to the weak signals that may allow early identification of strategic opportunities or threats. This paper explores the reasons why leaders often fail to "see the writing on the wall" and invest in preparations for possible futures that weak signal analysis can alert them to. It examines case studies of leaders who have acted on weak signals and thereby gained a march on their competitors. It then suggests a general course of action for increasing an organisation's sensitivity to the signals that can give early insight into future opportunities and threats. Finally, it notes some demographic shifts in the leadership population in Australia and other developed economies that may affect the speed with which the advocated leadership approach is adopted by